Delhi Assembly Elections 2013 – Why AAP should not support anyone to form government?
I have been glued to the screen yesterday for the whole day; following every update, every comment which was aired related to the results of Delhi Assembly elections.
I could not resist myself from sharing my view on the political scenario in Delhi after strong emergence of AAP in recently concluded Assembly elections and ended up writing this up.
There are a few things which I personally have felt during the day yesterday and of course after the results were declared:
- AAP is no underdog and they have it in them to efficiently organise elections and come out as winners.
- The number of seats won by AAP and the amount of voteshare it had in its favour has surpassed every single Exit Poll that was done in the country but their own.
- Mr. Yogendra Yadav gave very blunt response to the above point when was asked that they have been over-ambitious in claiming 40 out of 70 seats in their Exit Poll (before the elections. He accepted that they are proven wrong in their assumptions (without mocking any other party for proving their assumptions wrong as well) and clearly pointed out the fact that since their party is new and all the volunteers come from basic sections of society with no know-how of the last day tactic before the election, they could not make the most of it. That, as per him cost them a few votes which led them to lose a few seats that were expected to be won.
- When the BIG names of other parties were busy spreading their WISDOM on the brigade of news channels, either sitting in the cozy newsrooms or their offices – AAP leaders were doing what they have always done – were amidst the public sharing their joy and hopes.
- There is certain news doing rounds in political corridors and normal households today that AAP will not support any party and will sit in opposition – which would result in a HUNG assembly for Delhi. LG might have to impose presidential rule in Delhi and the state might go into another election in next 4 months. To me – that is another TESTAMENT of the philosophy of AAP that they will not support the corrupt whom they have been fighting against for last 2 years. They do have a golden opportunity to join hands with either of the big parties and form the government. They can be given high positions and portfolios as well – but if you read the manifesto of AAP, it is not in favour of these perks anyway!!
- So, what does this bring us to? What is going to be the future of Delhi and AAP? Well, I will take the liberty of sharing my view (I am no political pandit or a social scientist – but am an AAM AADMI for sure) so please bear with it till the time you read it through and then share your comments for sure please.
- First and the most important thing that these elections have done is clearing all the apprehensions that AAP is a bubble and will burst. On the contrary, it actually punctured the inflated EGOs of the biggest parties in the country by squashing their dreams of making it big in the capital of the country. I still remember a few of their members writing AAP completely down by saying – “the Delhi election is a contest between traditional rival parties of the country – INC & BJP. AAP is nowhere in the competition!” I do feel sorry for those gentlemen today! (I do see AAP going beyond Delhi and becoming a national party in coming years with a strong support that it is drawing from all parts of the country.)
- I am also riding high on the assumption that none of the 28 elected members of AAP will fall for the dirty tactics (which I am sure will be played by BJP) to take them along by all means – buying them, trick them or even scare them. If it happens contrary to
- About AAP’s decision of not supporting anyone and sit in opposition, in turn leaving Delhi with nothing but a HUNG assembly – in my view, it is a very good move; politically. It might lead to re-elections in the state in next 4-5 months and then AAP can target to bag more seats than this time with correcting the errors its made this time. It will also bring back those voters who did not vote for AAP just in apprehension that there vote might go waste as AAP is not sure of winning good number of seats.
Let’s look at some numbers to understand better that what actually have happened this time in Delhi elections in terms of votes in various constituencies. I have done some number crunching on my own and allow me to present that in form of some basic charts and tables.
Analysis of Total seats:
“WON“, “LOST but Second in tally” & “Remaining where AAP finished 3rd or lower“:
A) Analysis of WON Seats:
Below chart shows the no of seats won by AAP from the second party in the tally. It clearly shows that most of the seats that AAP have managed to win was closely followed by a BJP candidate.
Below chart and table shows the margin with which AAP has managed to win the seats with name of the constituency and the party.
This is a mixed bag where 7 seats were won in very tough competition (below 200 votes gap) and at the same time almost 35% of total seats won by AAP are with a margin of above 1000 votes, which includes the biggest victory of New Delhi in terms of vote difference – 25864 votes, which was more than total that Mrs. Sheila Dixit could manage (18,405).
Let’s look at the names of the constituencies for above analysis:
The above analysis indicates that it was a tough fight in a good amount of constituencies for AAP and that becomes area of focus for AAP if they go into election again.
Now, let’s look at the seats where AAP did lose, but they were the second in the tally:
B) Analysis of LOST Seats with Second position in the tally:
In the below chart as well one thing is common and that is BJP next to AAP. AAP has lost most of its seats to a BJP candidate (not very amusing though as per the decimation that Congress has gone through).
The details of the vote gap and the constituencies is again a mixed one here with almost half of the lost seats are below a gap of 5,000, but it’s also true that in elections a handful of votes can change the game.
Let’s have a look at the actual numbers of votes by which AAP has lost these seats and which are those constituencies:
The above list of below 2,000 votes contains the seat of RK Puram where Shazia Ilmi Malik of AAP lost to Anil Sharma of Congress by mere 326 votes! Very close – isn’t it!!
This brings me to the last leg of the data crunching – seats lost totally by AAP where it was either on 3rd or lower level in the tally, though it’s just a couple of cases where it is below 3rd position.
C) Analysis of LOST Seats with Third or lower position in the tally:
AAP candidates lost on 22 seats without a Silver and again 60% of those seats were bagged by BJP. However, this chart is more colourful than earlier two 😉
One thing to analyse in these numbers is that almost all of the seats that AAP has lost with 3rd or lower position are losses with huge margins. So, I am not very sure if AAP can work some magic in these constituencies and steal a couple of seats from BJP or Congress in case there are elections again in the capital.
The detailed figures of the tall standing towers in above chart would show the areas where AAP’s magic did not work – and the answers need to found by team Kejriwal because it is a huge number that has not given a verdict against his party, therefore rejecting his model of clean & corruption free politics.
I do not know Delhi that well to comment on demographic differences of the above localities but I am sure that the people of Delhi can sure relate to these numbers and see for themselves as to where all did AAP do well and where it slipped! It is also for those people who voted for someone else at the last moment in the polling booth because they were in two minds, who believed in AAP principles but were not sure if it will be able to deliver as per the hype and win as many seats to form government – see for yourselves now!
AAP not supporting any party to form government is the best political move and in case Delhi goes into election again – AAP must try to come out as a clean winner and form government of its own.
Though, it has already given enough reasons to Common Man like me to be hopeful of a cleaner, better and progressive governance in this country and now I can also dream of a better and prosperous India.
P.S: The above figures have been taken from the official site of Election Commission of India and some basic calculations have been done by me to present it here. I do not claim for 100% accuracy of the numbers, though I have taken utmost care to ensure that the figures are correct. Please review for yourself T http://eciresults.nic.in in case you need more information.
Looking forward to comments from many of the seasoned or amateur Political Scientists on how they see the situation in Delhi!
Have a great time and thanks for reading!